Market observation of chemical products for the new week: Formic acid and calcium formate remain stable, while acetic acid prices rise slightly.
In the new week, the domestic chemical market saw differentiated trends in some categories. The prices of formic acid and Calcium formate remained stable, while the price of acetic acid saw a slight increase. The overall market was influenced by multiple factors, and the short-term price stability still needs to be observed. It is necessary to continuously pay attention to changes in supply and demand and industry dynamics in the future.
The market for formic acid and calcium formate remained stable in the new week. This situation is underpinned by a relatively balanced supply and demand and structural support from multiple sectors. On the supply side, after the previous market adjustment, the current supply of formic acid and calcium formate is sufficient, with stable production rhythms and inventory levels within a reasonable range, laying a foundation for price stability. Although there has been no explosive growth in demand, the rigid demand from multiple sectors has provided strong support for the market. In the construction materials sector, calcium formate, as a chloride-free early strength agent for cement, has seen steadily increasing demand in scenarios such as prefabricated concrete components and low-temperature construction concrete, as the scale of prefabricated buildings expands and the new national standards for cement are implemented. This not only meets the requirements of construction projects for construction efficiency and durability but also injects stable momentum into the calcium formate market.
In the field of livestock breeding, the demand for calcium formate has shown a more obvious growth trend. With the in-depth implementation of the "Action Plan for Reducing the Use of Antibiotics in Veterinary Medicine (2021 - 2025)", the concept of green breeding has gradually become popular. Calcium formate, as an antibiotic alternative product with no residue and no withdrawal period, has been favored by large-scale breeding enterprises. In 2024, the demand for calcium formate in the field of antibiotic substitution alone accounted for 45%, with a year-on-year growth of 20%. The increase in the demand for high-quality feed by large-scale breeding groups such as Muyuan and Wens has further driven the purchase volume of high-end feed-grade calcium formate, with an average annual growth rate of 15%. At the same time, the global market size of feed-grade calcium formate has continued to expand, reaching 1.5 billion US dollars in 2024, with a domestic market size of approximately 1.8 billion yuan, maintaining an annual growth rate of over 9%. The long-term positive market outlook provides a guarantee for the stability of calcium formate prices.
The stable operation of the formic acid market is also related to the relatively stable price of methanol, the upstream raw material, in certain periods. Previously, the fluctuation of methanol prices had an impact on the production cost of formic acid. However, in the new week, the methanol market did not experience significant fluctuations, which made the cost pressure on formic acid production enterprises relatively controllable and created conditions for maintaining the stability of formic acid prices. Nevertheless, it should be noted that there are still potential uncertainties in the formic acid and calcium formate markets. If the demand recovery of downstream industries falls short of expectations in the future, or if there are significant fluctuations in the prices of upstream raw materials, it may pose challenges to the stability of formic acid and calcium formate prices.
In contrast to the stable prices of formic acid and calcium formate, acetic acid prices saw a slight increase in the new week. This price change is the result of the combined effect of supply-side adjustments and improved demand expectations. On the supply side, some acetic acid production facilities entered the maintenance period, leading to a decline in market capacity utilization and easing supply pressure. Meanwhile, after a period of digestion, the inventories of acetic acid enterprises generally decreased, and their willingness to hold prices firm strengthened, providing support for the price increase.
Positive signals from the demand side have also injected momentum into the upward trend of acetic acid prices. New production capacity plans for PTA, acetate esters, vinyl acetate, and other downstream products of acetic acid are scheduled to come online by 2025, and the market holds expectations for future demand growth. Although the current downstream market is still mainly focused on consuming long-term contracts, and immediate demand has not seen significant growth, the expectation of long-term demand improvement has had a positive impact on market sentiment, and the purchasing intentions of some traders and downstream enterprises have increased. Moreover, the wide application of acetic acid in organic synthesis, medicine, fuel, fragrances, pesticides, and other industries, along with its rigid demand, also provides certain support for prices. In 2024, China's acetic acid production capacity was approximately 12.11 million tons, with an industry operating rate maintained at around 75%. The large production capacity and stable operating rate not only ensure market supply but also make the industry more sensitive to demand changes. Once demand shows marginal improvement, it may trigger price fluctuations.
However, the acetic acid market also faces significant risks that cannot be ignored. By 2024, domestic acetic acid production capacity has reached 12 million tons, and it is expected that an additional 5.9 million tons of capacity will be added in 2025. The growth rate of supply is significantly higher than that of demand, and there is a possibility of overcapacity in the future, which will put pressure on the long-term price trend of acetic acid. At the same time, the weak downward trend of methanol prices in the upstream has also weakened the cost support for acetic acid to a certain extent. In some periods of 2024, the methanol price dropped by 6.17%. If the methanol price continues to decline in the future, it will exert a downward pull on the production cost of acetic acid, possibly offsetting part of the upward price momentum brought by the supply-side benefits.
Overall, the prices of formic acid and calcium formate remained stable in the new week, while acetic acid prices saw a slight increase, reflecting the complexity and uncertainty of the current chemical market. For market participants, it is necessary to closely monitor subsequent industry developments. On the one hand, they should track the demand changes in the downstream construction and livestock breeding industries of formic acid and calcium formate, as well as the price trend of upstream methanol. On the other hand, they should pay attention to the progress of acetic acid plant maintenance, the commissioning of new downstream production capacity, and the release rhythm of new capacity. Due to the influence of multiple factors on the market, price stability is insufficient. It is recommended that related enterprises strengthen market research and analysis, and flexibly adjust their procurement and sales strategies based on their own business conditions to cope with possible price fluctuation risks and ensure the stable operation of production and business. We will continue to pay attention to subsequent market changes and update them in a timely manner.
